While Gwede Mantashe’s “backtracking” offers temporary relief, the mining sector eyes his 2027 departure. Uncertainty reigns, prompting industry to strategise for post-Mantashe policy permanence. ESG Frontiers Mining Policy Lead Lloyd Nedohe reviews.
The last couple of weeks truly belonged to South Africa’s Mineral and Petroleum Resources Minister, Gwede Mantashe. It felt like a triple whammy for the veteran politician, a flurry of activity that put him squarely in the spotlight. First, there was the moment he stepped into the Acting President role, while the actual President Ramaphosa watched a fake genocide dramedy at the Oval Office– a truly surreal, globally televised moment.
While in this turn of his short-term presidency Mantashe did not threaten a land grab in Orania to bless Black South Africans; he characteristically seized the stage to launch two of his long-anticipated pet projects: the new Draft Minerals Bill, and the fanfare-filled South African National Petroleum Company (SANPC)
Yet, despite the fanfare, a common, an unsettling theme runs through these events: a striking lack of permanence. His brief stint in the highest office, while symbolically significant, was fleeting by design.
Just weeks ago, a Sunday World report(Sunday World, 6 April 2025) quoted Mantashe himself, saying he “is of age” and would not be returning to either Cabinet or active ANC politics after 2027. This declared intent to step aside casts a long shadow over the long-term stewardship of his key initiatives. A new sheriff may rewrite the rulebook.
The SANPC: Ambition Meets Uncertainty
Take the SANPC, born from the merger of PetroSA, iGas, and the Strategic Fuel Fund. Launched officially on May 23rd, 2025, and operational since May 1st, it’s framed as South Africa’s answer to energy sovereignty and refining revival. Minister Mantashe has hailed it as an “energy champion,” aiming to restart the mothballed Mossel Bay gas-to-liquids plant and reopen the shuttered SAPREF refinery. The company is set to manage strategic fuel stocks and pursue ambitious upstream projects. However, the details are often vague. The merger itself uses a “lease and assignment” model, attempting to ring-fence PetroSA’s notorious legacy of financial mismanagement and a R14.5 billion write-down.
CEO Mr Godfrey Moagi presented SANPC’s vision as a resilient, forward-thinking energy player focused on value creation for the country.
“SANPC is committed to building a people-centred, future-fit energy company that drives investment, fosters regional partnerships, and contributes to South Africa’s economic transformation,” said Moagi.
“We are drawing on global lessons, such as those from Petrobras, while tailoring our approach to reflect South Africa’s realities and aspirations.”
But critics fear this isn’t streamlining operations, but rather consolidating dysfunction under a larger bureaucratic umbrella, pushing problems into the future rather than resolving them. It’s a grand vision, yes, but far from completed and riddled with questions about how it will overcome past failures or attract crucial private capital. In essence, a cosmetic fix for a structural flaw.
The Contentious Draft Minerals Bill – Updated Review
Then there’s the Draft Minerals Bill, a piece of legislation designed to enhance investor confidence and streamline processes, supposedly.
But barely had it seen the light of day, and the Minerals Council South Africa – the industry’s powerful lobby group – was already voicing dismay. They’d explicitly stated that their comprehensive submissions and recommendations were seemingly ignored. The Council, representing major players like Valterra Platinum Limited (formerly Anglo American Platinum), diversified owner Exxaro Resources Ltd., and Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd., highlighted concerns that key submissions they made, particularly on Black ownership requirements for exploration companies (aimed at attracting investment in a high-risk sector), were not incorporated.
However, in a sudden turn of events, Minister Gwede Mantashe has already moved to correct some of these contentious points. The DMRE this week issued corrections to the draft amendments, most notably removing the requirement for exploration firms to sign up empowerment partners before applying for a prospecting licence.
This aligns with Mantashe’s earlier public statements that there should be no BEE requirement for exploration, as the focus at that stage is on identifying deposits, not extracting value. Furthermore, the corrections clarified that listed companies are not required to apply for a Section 11 ‘change of control’ approval related to share transactions, a point of concern that could have created significant hurdles for listed entities.
While these corrections address some immediate points of friction, the broader context remains. If the very industry the Bill seeks to regulate feels unheard, and if fundamental recommendations are left out (even with these new amendments, many contentious provisions remain), how long can this draft survive scrutiny, or genuinely attract the investment South Africa desperately needs? It risks being short-lived.
The Minerals Council and various stakeholders have threatened litigation against the draft bill’s remaining recommendations, leveraging their deep financial resources to mount a potentially prolonged “Stalingrad approach,” aiming to wear down the government or other stakeholders through sheer persistence and financial might.
Given Minister Mantashe’s scheduled departure in 2027, this strategy might still be designed to outlast the current administration and potentially secure more favourable outcomes under future leadership. The uncertainty and potential for ongoing legal battles could impact the investment climate and the mining sector’s stability.
Mantashe retorted, “I never begrudge the mining industry; they are allowed to do that because our justice system is independent, and I accept and respect that.”
A Legacy of Strategic Duality
Time is a costly indulgence. While for now the Tiger growls for permanence, these ‘pet projects’ may not outlive the hostile winds he has tossed them into.
Beyond the headlines, Minister Mantashe’s legacy is defined by a strategic balancing act: championing fossil fuels while navigating the Just Energy Transition. This strategic duality, a tightrope walk between traditional energy and future demands, represents a complex and potentially enduring legacy that the South African economy may feel, for better or worse, long after Mantashe’s departure from politics.
*Stakeholders, including major and junior industry players and the public, are set to voice their opinions on the Draft Mineral Resources Development Bill, with submissions closing on August 13, 2025
Opinion by Editor: Lloyd Nedohe @lloydnedohe_ on X , Email : info@esgfrontiers.co.za
