The United Nations has announced that the Earth will reach a significant population milestone today, November 15, 2022. According to the UN Population Division, there will be 8 billion humans on the planet on November 15, a staggering increase from a 2.5 billion population just 72 years ago. This is expected to rise to 8.5 billion in just three decades, with experts predicting an increase in average life expectancy of up to 77.2 years by 2050.
They predict that the world’s population will reach its peak in 2080 at 10.4 billion, after which there is a 50% chance that it will plateau or even decline by 2100.
“This is an occasion to celebrate our diversity, recognize our common humanity, and marvel at advancements in health that have extended lifespans and dramatically reduced maternal and child mortality rates,” U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres said in a statement. “At the same time, it is a reminder of our shared responsibility to care for our planet and a moment to reflect on where we still fall short of our commitments to one another,” he continued.
However, more cautious models, such as the one published in the Lancet in 2020, predicted that the population would grow much more slowly, reaching 8.8 billion people by the end of the century.
Despite this rise, the rate of population growth worldwide has sharply slowed to less than 1%, according to Rachel Snow of the UN Population Fund.
As fertility rates continue to fall from a peak in the 1950s, the UN predicts that this growth rate could decrease even more to around 0.5 percent by 2050.
The UN noted that more than half of the projected increase in the world’s population up to 2050 will be concentrated in just eight countries: the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, and Tanzania. Growth will not occur equally across the planet, though.
According to the UN, other significant changes are on the horizon, including rising life expectancy (from 72.98 in 2019 to 77.2 in 2050) and significantly older populations.
According to the UN, the proportion of people aged 65 will rise from 10% in 2022 to 16% in 2050, roughly double that of children under 5 and roughly the same as those under 12.
The UN urged countries with aging populations to adapt their public programs to address the issue, including improving the sustainability of social security and pension systems, establishing universal health care, and establishing long-term care systems.
